A New Turkey Caesar
Merlini1
Merlini1
09/07/2010
It was a well that President Obama, in a recent interview with Corriere della Sera, has implicitly corrected its defense minister a few days earlier, during a visit to Europe, had accused the Europeans to remove Turkey from the West, denying entry into the EU. The wrong thing that Americans and Europeans could do is to indulge in mutual recriminations on the respective responsibilities for the new guidelines of the foreign policy of Ankara, according to the formula - who lost Turkey - in vogue in Washington. Person is known to be cautious and balanced, Robert Gates, who was head of the Pentagon already in the previous Bush administration - still available only outcome of the opening made by the new president in a more bipartisan public affairs. And the government American, regardless of its political coloring, was in favor of Turkish membership in the European Union it was very well known. The preference of the United States, moreover, is more than understandable, given the enormous potential for them (and throughout the West) of such a development, although the insistence with which it was expressed at times appeared too much like generously offered a tribute paid by a credit card of others (ie Europeans). New corsoMa the thesis that autonomous choices and often glamorous, made recently by Erdogan in the field of international politics, are a direct result of only half-open door - or half-closed, semi-enclosed ambiguously, let us say - left by the Europeans to Turkey's EU membership, does not withstand even a summary analysis. Gates really think that having a foot or two in Europe would lead the turkish prime minister to ignore the reaction of its public opinion, particularly that of his party, the operation "molten lead" conducted by Israel in Gaza ' Winter 2008-09? That's where the "new course" in Ankara has given visibility, as demonstrated by the dramatic incident with Shimon Peres in Davos a few weeks later, and the surplus of domestic consensus that Erdogan has drawn. But it goes back several years earlier, a novelty of the growing attention being Citizens for foreign policy issues, the first reserved, by tradition, to an inner circle and the elite, including the business and the military - very secular but undemocratic. And you get to the next step in Davos, the last, that of the so-called humanitarian flotilla, organized with the support of the party in power and turkish clumsily and bloodily stopped by Israeli special forces, before it reached Gaza.Orbene, as might be wait, Obama told the Courier that "it would be wise to accept Turkey into the Union." But he added: "I recognize that this raises strong feelings in Europe and I do not think the slow pace or the European reluctance is the sole or predominant factor of some changes recently observed in the attitude of orientation turkish "(emphasis added). In Washington, you should reflect on the fact that the "change orientation" and subsequent events have even appeared in the eyes of those who have always opposed the EU enlargement to Turkey, as a confirmation of the incompatibility of both ex-post new approaches to international and regional Ankara with the EU, is the inability of the Union (and its key partners, already prone to the cacophony among them) to impose even a vague common discipline of the Turkish media power. Responsibility UsaPeraltro, who in Europe searching for arguments to say that, on the contrary, the main responsibilities of the drift "heretical" Turkey are located across the Atlantic, it would have great difficulty in finding someone. For example, it is likely that Erdogan, to take in his predominantly Muslim country in collaboration with the complex role of mediation between Israel and the Jewish state and its Arab enemies, counting the first American moderating influence on Olmert and Netanyahu then, especially after the efforts made by Obama announced in this regard. But the results so far are very disappointing, not only in the eyes of the Turkish leadership. That comes to proving that the power in Washington the traditional Jewish lobby (not the J Street, so to speak, on which many hopes were pinned) remains condizionante.Ma there are other lobbies that exert influence on Congress, against the preferences of the administration. Among them that of the Armenians - here is a second example - whose agitation in favor of a resolution to declare the massacre of their ethnic genocide by the Turks (obvious to the vast majority of historians, but perhaps not a task for majority Members, when the tragedy has passed a century) appeared as a weapon of great resentment offer to the nationalists, who opposed to another whole chapter of Erdogan's policy, that internal dialogue with the minorities in order to heal old wounds national. Now, the protection of ethnic minorities is a condition urgently requested by the Europeans in general as the constitutional reform in a democratic sense, the subject of the next referendum. Reality emergenteLa Turkey is not "lost". It is wrong to say that the "failure [of negotiating accession to the EU] will mean a return to nationalist and autarkic policies, as well as the continuation of violence and instability", as does Henry Barkey of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, in the journal Survival ( 53-2, June-July 2010). Emerging economies are prone now unlikely autarky. The figures speak for the first quarter 2010 growth of 11 Turkish 4%, second only to China. The debt to 49% of GDP and the deficit could drop below 3% early as next year, fall within the conditions of membership of the euro, while the spreads on government bonds is 192 (194 in Italy and 980 in Greece traditional rival). But above all, trade has grown with its neighbors, ie Iran, Saudi Arabia and Syria, as well as with Russia, the first partner, but also with Israel, despite political tensions. And economic relations with the Americans and the Europeans seem destined to remain robust enough to nature - Thanks to the innovative spirit that is not defect to the Turks - including in situations of child "ownership" of Turkey to the West. On both sides of the Atlantic share the desire that democracy, secularism and the institutional separation of powers was raised in Turkey, but more and more as a consequence of the will of the people and less and less as requirements to pass the metal detector input of the European Union, which is not like an airport where you enter, then take the plane vuole.E that if we pass to the internal dynamics of foreign policy, the signal came to Ankara with the agreement reached with Iran (and Brazil!) Iran on uranium enrichment (the trade agreement only slightly 'weaker than first negotiated by the West and the Russians and then disowned by Ahmadinejad) wants to project Turkey to the level of an emerging power, not only economic, claiming a role Regional, regardless of the prospects of EU membership and membership in NATO. And it is mainly a signal for Washington.È this reality, in Europe and the United States, instead of recriminations between them, should take note, having a common interest to develop an optimal strategy in this new medium power, placed in a key position chessboard at the most difficult for the West.
(article from International Affairs)
Cesare Merlini is Chairman of the Board of Trustees, Institute for International Affairs.
See also: R. Aliboni: The wedge of Turkey in the Middle East conflict
D. Christian The return of Turkey to the Persian Gulf M
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